AirDNA just called 2026 the best year to invest in short-term rentals since 2021. Meanwhile, Colorado mountain towns are opening the year planning for lower tourism revenue and Vail is budgeting for a 6.8% decline from 2024. Both things are true — and the gap between them tells you exactly where Mountain West operators are positioned heading into this season.
MARKET INTEL
AirDNA's 2026 Outlook Report identifies 2026 as the best investment environment for STRs since 2021, driven by cooling home prices, steadier revenue indicators, and slower listing expansion.
National occupancy is forecast to ease slightly by 1% as supply reaccelerates faster than demand. ADR growth resumes at 1.5% after 2025's softer-than-expected gains. RevPAR growth lands at 0.5% — below inflation, meaning real purchasing power of revenue is flat. New listing growth sits at 4.6%, well below the 2021–22 peak of 20% but reaccelerating from 2025's low.
Colorado's mountain towns closed 2025 quietly. Breckenridge's 2026 budget assumes a 3% decline in sales tax revenue. Vail is projecting total revenues down 2% from last year, which itself represented a 6.8% decline from 2024. The pandemic-era outdoor recreation surge that drove double-digit growth across Colorado's high country has normalized.
Wyoming is a different story. Jackson Hole's regulatory environment, tax structure, and proximity to two national parks create structural demand advantages that don't moderate with the rest of the Mountain West cycle. Mortgage rates are stabilizing around 6.3% and home prices are softening in major vacation rental markets — the closest thing to a clear investment entry signal the data has offered since 2021.
OPERATOR PLAYBOOK
January is slow. That's the point. It's the one window in the Mountain West operating calendar where you can spend half a day on rate strategy without losing revenue to do it.
Step 1: Pull your trailing 12-month ADR and compare it to your competitive set. AirDNA's MarketMinder gives you market-level ADR data by property type. For Jackson specifically, the current market average is approximately $880 ADR with 55% annual occupancy. If your ADR is materially below that on comparable units, you have a pricing problem.
Step 2: Identify your three lowest-performing months by RevPAR. For most Mountain West properties this is November, early April, and late January. These aren't months to accept as structurally low — they're months to target with minimum-stay adjustments, package pricing, and direct booking incentives.
Step 3: Verify your peak pricing has a defensible ceiling. The top 10% of Jackson properties achieve 83%+ annual occupancy at peak-month ADRs of $754. If your July rate isn't within 20% of that range for a comparable property, you've left the season's highest-value inventory underpriced.
Step 4: Check your direct booking infrastructure. STR demand grew 4.9% in 2025 while hotel demand grew 0.5%. If your only channel is Airbnb or Vrbo, you're paying 3% host fees on every booking. A direct booking site costs $30–50/month and recovers that margin on 10 bookings.
MARKET WATCH
A useful exercise at the start of any year: map where institutional capital is pointing, then ask whether the same thesis applies at smaller scale.
Jackson Hole / Teton County, WY — Strong Buy. Structural demand advantages, favorable tax environment, no statewide STR regulation pressure. Best risk-adjusted entry in the Mountain West.
Colorado Ski Resorts (Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen) — Hold / Cautious. Post-pandemic normalization underway. Stabilized operators can hold; new acquisitions need underwriting at current revenue levels, not 2022–23 peaks.
Mountain West RV Parks & Campgrounds — Consolidation Play. Institutional buyers active. Single-property operators with 3+ years of clean financials are acquisition targets. Know your exit multiple before you need it.
Rural / Small-City WY, MT, ID Markets — Emerging. Small-city STR supply grew 13.76% year-over-year nationally. Lower property costs, fewer regulatory barriers, growing demand for authentic rural experiences.
Mid-Term Rentals (28–90 day stays) — Growing Fast. Nights booked 28+ days surged 136% between 2019 and 2025. Monthly rentals now 19% of total STR demand, growing at 8% annually. Remote workers and healthcare travelers are the driver. If you're near Bozeman, Jackson, or a Mountain West medical hub, test a 30-day listing on Furnished Finder this month.
The best way to shape what this newsletter covers is to tell me what you're actually working on. Reply with one sentence: what's the biggest operational or investment question you're carrying into 2026? I read every reply.